Kakaretso:Khahlano pakeng tsa phepelo le tlhokahalo ke e 'ngoe ea mabaka a susumetsang ho phahama ha theko ea nickel, empa ka mor'a boemo bo mabifi ba 'maraka, likhopolo-taba tse ngata indastering ke "bongata" (e etelletsoeng pele ke Glencore) le "ho se na letho" (haholo-holo ke Tsingshan Group). .
Haufinyane tjena, ka khohlano pakeng tsa Russia le Ukraine e le fuse, LME (London Metal Exchange) bokamoso ba nickel bo ile ba qhoma 'marakeng oa "epic".
Khanyetsano pakeng tsa phepelo le tlhokahalo ke e 'ngoe ea mabaka a susumetsang ho phahama ha theko ea nickel, empa ka mor'a boemo bo mabifi ba 'maraka, likhopolo-taba tse ngata indastering ke hore matla a lichelete a mahlakoreng a mabeli ke "poho" (e etelletsoeng ke Glencore) le " empty" (haholo-holo ke Tsingshan Group).
Qetello ea nako ea 'maraka ea nickel ea LME
Ka la 7 Hlakubele, theko ea nickel ea LME e nyolohile ho tloha ho US$30,000/ton (theko ea ho bula) ho ea ho US$50,900/ton (theko ea ho lefa), keketseho ea letsatsi le le leng ea hoo e ka bang 70%.
Ka la 8 Hlakubele, litheko tsa nickel tsa LME li ile tsa tsoela pele ho nyoloha, tsa nyolohela ho US$101,000/ton, 'me tsa theohela ho US$80,000/ton. Matsatsing a mabeli a khoebo, theko ea nickel ea LME e nyolohile ka 248%.
Ka 4:00 mantsiboea ka la 8 Hlakubele, LME e nkile qeto ea ho emisa khoebo ea bokamoso ba nickel le ho chechisa ho tlisoa ha likonteraka tsohle tsa nickel tse neng li reretsoe ho tlisoa ka la 9 Hlakubele.
Ka la 9 Hlakubele, Tsingshan Group e ile ea araba ka hore e tla nkela poleiti ea tšepe ea tšepe e ncha sebakeng sa eona e phahameng ea matte nickel, mme e fane ka sebaka se lekaneng bakeng sa ho tsamaisoa ka liteishene tse fapaneng.
Ka la 10 Hlakubele, LME e boletse hore e rerile ho tlosa maemo a malelele le a makhutšoane pele ho buloa khoebo ea nickel, empa mahlakore ka bobeli a hlolehile ho arabela hantle.
Ho tloha ka la 11 Hlakubele ho isa la 15, nickel ea LME e ile ea tsoela pele ho emisoa.
Ka la 15 Hlakubele, LME e phatlalalitse hore konteraka ea nickel e tla qala khoebo ka la 16 Hlakubele ka nako ea lehae. Tsingshan Group e boletse hore e tla hokahana le mokhatlo o hlophisitsoeng oa mokoloto oa mokoloto bakeng sa lipehelo tsa nickel tsa Tsingshan le litlhoko tsa tefo.
Ka bokhutšoane, Russia, joalo ka morekisi oa bohlokoa oa lisebelisoa tsa nickel, e ile ea fuoa kotlo ka lebaka la ntoa ea Serussia-Seukraine, e leng se ileng sa baka ho se khonehe ha nickel ea Serussia ho tlisoa LME, e behiloe holim'a lintlha tse ngata tse joalo ka ho se khone ho tlatsa lisebelisoa tsa nickel. Asia Boroa-bochabela ka nako e nepahetseng, litaelo tse se nang letho tsa Tsingshan Group bakeng sa hedging li kanna tsa se khonehe E fanoe ka nako, e ileng ea baka karabelo ea ketane.
Ho na le matšoao a fapaneng a hore ketsahalo ena eo ho thoeng ke ea "short squeeze" ha e e-so fele, 'me puisano le papali lipakeng tsa bankakarolo ba nako e telele le ba bakhutšoane, LME, le litsi tsa lichelete li ntse li tsoela pele.
Ho nka sena e le monyetla, sengoloa sena se tla leka ho araba lipotso tse latelang:
1. Hobaneng tšepe ea nickel e fetoha sepheo sa papali ea capital?
2. Na phepelo ea lisebelisoa tsa nickel e lekane?
3. Keketseho ea theko ea nickel e tla ama bokae 'maraka oa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla?
Nickel bakeng sa betri ea matla e fetoha palo e ncha ea kholo
Ka nts'etsopele e potlakileng ea likoloi tse ncha tsa matla lefatšeng, tse phahamisitseng mokhoa oa nickel e phahameng le cobalt e tlase ka libeteri tsa ternary lithium, nickel bakeng sa libeteri tsa matla e fetoha palo e ncha ea ts'ebeliso ea nickel.
Indasteri e bolela esale pele hore ka 2025, betri ea ternary ea matla a lefats'e e tla nka karolo ea 50%, eo libeteri tse phahameng tsa nickel ternary li tla ikarabella ho feta 83%, 'me karolo ea 5-series ternary battery e tla theohela ka tlase ho 17%. Tlhokahalo ea nickel le eona e tla nyoloha ho tloha ho lithane tse 66,000 ka 2020 ho isa ho lithane tse 620,000 ka 2025, ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo ea kholo ea 48% lilemong tse 'ne tse tlang.
Ho latela se boletsoeng esale pele, tlhoko ea lefats'e ea nickel ea libeteri tsa motlakase le eona e tla nyoloha ho tloha ka tlase ho 7% hajoale ho fihla ho 26% ka 2030.
Joaloka moetapele oa lefats'e oa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla, boitšoaro ba Tesla "nickel hoarding" bo batla bo hlanya. Mookameli oa Tesla Musk o boetse o boletse makhetlo a mangata hore lisebelisoa tse tala tsa nickel ke bothata bo boholo ba Tesla.
Gaogong Lithium e hlokometse hore ho tloha 2021, Tesla e sebelisane ka katleho le k'hamphani ea morafo ea French New Caledonia Proni Resources, seqhenqha sa merafo sa Australia BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, k'hamphani ea merafo ea Canada Giga Metals, moepo oa Amerika Talon Metals, joalo-joalo. Lik'hamphani tse 'maloa tsa merafo li saenetse. palo ea litumellano tsa phepelo ea nako e telele bakeng sa likhakanyo tsa nickel.
Ntle le moo, lik'hamphani tse ketane ea indasteri ea betri ea matla tse kang CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, le Tsingshan Group le tsona li eketsa taolo ea tsona holim'a lisebelisoa tsa nickel.
Sena se bolela hore ho laola lisebelisoa tsa nickel ho lekana le ho tseba tekete ea pina ea lidolara tse libilione.
Glencore ke mohoebi oa thepa e kholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng ebile ke e mong oa li-recyclers le li-processor tse kholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng tsa lisebelisoa tse nang le nickel, e nang le potefolio ea mesebetsi ea merafo e amanang le nickel Canada, Norway, Australia le New Coledonia. matlotlo. Ka 2021, chelete ea thepa ea nickel ea k'hamphani e tla ba $ 2.816 bilione, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea hoo e ka bang 20%.
Ho latela lintlha tsa LME, ho tloha ka la 10 Pherekhong 2022, karolo ea lirisiti tsa polokelo ea thepa ea nakong e tlang e bolokiloeng ke moreki a le mong e eketsehile butle ho tloha ho 30% ho ea ho 39%, mme qalong ea Hlakubele, karolo ea kakaretso ea lirisiti tsa polokelo ea thepa e se e fetile 90%. .
Ho ea ka boholo bona, 'maraka o hakanya hore lipoho tse papaling ena ea nako e telele li ka' na tsa e-ba Glencore.
Ka lehlakoreng le leng, Sehlopha sa Tsingshan se phunyeletse theknoloji ea ho lokisetsa "NPI (nickel pig iron from laterite nickel ore) - high nickel matte", e fokolitseng litšenyehelo haholo 'me e lebeletsoe ho senya tšusumetso ea nickel sulfate ho nickel e hloekileng. (e nang le nickel content e seng ka tlase ho 99.8 %, e tsejoang hape e le nickel ea mantlha).
Ka lehlakoreng le leng, 2022 e tla ba selemo seo morero o mocha oa Tsingshan Group oa Indonesia o tla kengoa tšebetsong. Tsingshan e na le litebello tse matla tsa kholo bakeng sa bokhoni ba eona ba tlhahiso e ntseng e hahuoa. Ka Hlakubele 2021, Tsingshan e saenetse tumellano ea phepelo ea nickel matte e phahameng le Huayou Cobalt le Zhongwei Co., Ltd. Tsingshan e tla fana ka lithane tse 60,000 tsa nickel matte e phahameng ho Huayou Cobalt le lithane tse 40,000 ho Zhongwei Co., Ltd. nakong ea selemo se le seng ho tloha ka la 21 Mphalane 21. Matte e phahameng ea nickel.
Ho lokela ho hlakisoe hore litlhoko tsa LME bakeng sa lihlahisoa tsa ho fana ka nickel ke nickel e hloekileng, 'me nickel e phahameng ea matte ke sehlahisoa sa mahareng se ke keng sa sebelisoa bakeng sa ho fana. Qingshan pure nickel e rekoa haholo ho tsoa Russia. Nickel ea Russia e ne e thibetsoe khoebong ka lebaka la ntoa ea Serussia le Seukraine, e phahamisa lethathamo la lihlahisoa tsa nickel tse tlase haholo tsa lefats'e, tse ileng tsa beha Qingshan kotsing ea "ho se na thepa e ka fetoloang".
Ke hantle ka lebaka la sena hore papali ea nako e telele ea tšepe ea nickel e haufi.
Lipolokelo tsa nickel tsa lefats'e le phepelo
Ho ea ka United States Geological Survey (USGS), ho tloha bofelong ba 2021, li-nickel reserves (libaka tse netefalitsoeng tsa li-deposit tse thehiloeng mobung) li ka ba lithane tse limilione tse 95.
Har'a bona, Indonesia le Australia li na le lithane tse ka bang limilione tse 21 ka ho latellana, tse etsang karolo ea 22%, li behile tse peli tse holimo; Brazil e etsa karolo ea 17% ea pokello ea nickel ea lithane tse limilione tse 16, e boemong ba boraro; Russia le Philippines li etsa 8% le 5% ka ho latellana. %, e maemong a bone kapa a bohlano. Linaha tsa TOP5 li nka karolo ea 74% ea lisebelisoa tsa lefats'e tsa nickel.
Lichelete tsa nickel tsa China li ka ba lithane tse limilione tse 2.8, tse etsang 3%. Joaloka moreki ea ka sehloohong oa lisebelisoa tsa nickel, Chaena e itšetlehile haholo ka thepa ea nickel e tsoang linaheng tse ling, ka tekanyo ea ho reka ka ntle ho 80% ka lilemo tse ngata.
Ho ea ka sebopeho sa ore, nickel ore e arotsoe haholo ka nickel sulfide le nickel laterite, ka karolelano ea 6:4. Ea pele e fumaneha haholo Australia, Russia le libakeng tse ling, 'me ea morao-rao e fumaneha haholo Indonesia, Brazil, Philippines le libaka tse ling.
Ho ea ka 'maraka oa kopo, tlhoko e tlase ea nickel ke ho etsoa ha tšepe e sa hloekang, li-alloys le libeteri tsa motlakase. Litšepe tse sa hloekang li etsa hoo e ka bang 72%, li-alloys le li-castings li etsa karolo ea 12%, 'me nickel bakeng sa libeteri ke hoo e ka bang 7%.
Pejana, ho ne ho e-na le litsela tse peli tse batlang li ikemetse tsa phepelo ea nickel: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" le "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
Ka nako e ts'oanang, 'maraka oa phepelo le tlhokahalo ea nickel le ona butle-butle o tobane le ho se leka-lekane ha sebopeho. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, palo e kholo ea merero ea tšepe ea kolobe ea nickel e hlahisoang ke ts'ebetso ea RKEF e kentsoe ts'ebetsong, e leng se entseng hore ho be le phaello e lekanyelitsoeng ea tšepe ea kolobe ea nickel; ka lehlakoreng le leng, e khannoang ke tsoelo-pele e potlakileng ea likoloi tse ncha tsa matla, libeteri Ho hōla ha nickel ho entse hore ho be le khaello e lekanyelitsoeng ea nickel e hloekileng.
Lintlha tse tsoang tlalehong ea World Bureau of Metal Statistics li bontša hore ho tla ba le lithane tse 84,000 tsa nickel ka 2020. Ho qala ka 2021, tlhoko ea lefats'e ea nickel e tla phahama haholo. Lithekiso tsa likoloi tse ncha tsa motlakase li tsamaisitse kholo ea tšebeliso e nyane ea nickel, mme khaello ea phepelo 'marakeng oa lefatše oa nickel e tla fihla ho lithane tse 144,300 ka 2021.
Leha ho le joalo, ka katleho ea theknoloji ea lipakeng tsa ho lokisa lihlahisoa, mokhoa o boletsoeng ka holimo oa phepelo ea libopeho tse peli oa senyeha. Ntlha ea pele, ore ea morao-rao ea boemo bo tlaase e ka hlahisa nickel sulfate ka sehlahisoa se bohareng se metsi sa ts'ebetso ea HPAL; ea bobeli, ore ea morao-rao ea boemo bo phahameng e ka hlahisa tšepe ea nickel ea kolobe ka ts'ebetso ea RKEF pyrotechnic, ebe e feta ka converter blowing ho hlahisa nickel matte ea boemo bo phahameng, e leng eona e hlahisang nickel sulfate. E hlokomela monyetla oa ho sebelisoa ha lateite nickel ore indastering e ncha ea matla.
Hajoale, merero ea tlhahiso e sebelisang theknoloji ea HPAL e kenyelletsa Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, joalo-joalo. Ka nako e ts'oanang, morero oa Qingmeibang o tsetelitsoeng ke CATL le GEM, morero oa Huayue nickel-cobalt o tseteletsoeng ke Huayou Cobalt, le nickel ea Huafei. -cobalt morero o tsetelitsoeng ke Yiwei kaofela ke merero ea ts'ebetso ea HPAL.
Ho phaella moo, morero o phahameng oa nickel matte o etelletsoeng ke Tsingshan Group o ile oa kenngoa ts'ebetsong, o ileng oa boela oa bula lekhalo pakeng tsa nickel ea morao-rao le nickel sulfate, 'me oa hlokomela phetoho ea tšepe ea kolobe ea nickel pakeng tsa tšepe e sa hloekang le liindasteri tse ncha tsa matla.
Maikutlo a indasteri ke hore ka nako e khutšoanyane, ho lokolloa ha matla a phahameng a tlhahiso ea nickel matte ha ho e-s'o fihle boemong ba ho nolofatsa lekhalo la phepelo ea likarolo tsa nickel, 'me kholo ea phepelo ea nickel sulfate e ntse e itšetlehile ka ho qhala nickel ea mantlha e kang. linaoa tsa nickel/ phofo ea nickel. boloka mokhoa o matla.
Ha nako e ntse e ea, tšebeliso ea nickel masimong a setso a kang tšepe e sa hloekang e bolokile khōlo e tsitsitseng, 'me mokhoa oa ho hōla ka potlako tšimong ea libeteri tsa matla a ternary o tiile. Bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea morero oa "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" bo se bo lokollotsoe, 'me morero oa ts'ebetso ea HPAL o tla kena nakong ea tlhahiso ea bongata ka 2023. Tlhokahalo ea kakaretso ea lisebelisoa tsa nickel e tla boloka tekanyo e tiileng pakeng tsa phepelo le tlhokahalo ho bokamoso.
Tšusumetso ea ho nyoloha ha theko ea nickel 'marakeng oa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla
Ha e le hantle, ka lebaka la theko ea nickel e ntseng e phahama, tlhahiso ea Tesla's Model 3 e phahameng ea ts'ebetso le Model Y ea nako e telele, phetolelo e phahameng ea ts'ebetso e sebelisang libeteri tse phahameng tsa nickel ka bobeli e eketsehile ka 10,000 yuan.
Ho ea ka GWh e 'ngoe le e' ngoe ea high-nickel ternary lithium battery (ho nka NCM 811 e le mohlala), lithane tse 750 tsa tšepe tsa nickel lia hlokahala, 'me e' ngoe le e 'ngoe ea GWh ea nickel e bohareng le e tlaase (5 series, 6 series) ternary lithium battery e hloka 500-600. lithane tsa tšepe tsa nickel. Ebe theko ea yuniti ea nickel e eketseha ka li-yuan tse 10,000 ka tonne ea tšepe, ho bolelang hore litšenyehelo tsa libeteri tsa ternary lithium ka GWh li eketseha ka li-yuan tse ka bang limilione tse 5 ho isa ho li-yuan tse limilione tse 7,5.
Khakanyo e boima ke hore ha theko ea nickel e le US $ 50,000 / ton, litšenyehelo tsa Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) li tla eketseha ka 10,500 yuan; 'me ha theko ea nickel e nyolohela ho US $ 100,000 / ton, theko ea Tesla Model 3 e tla eketseha. Keketseho ea li-yuan tse ka bang 28,000.
Ho tloha ka 2021, thekiso ea likoloi tse ncha tsa motlakase lefatšeng ka bophara e eketsehile, 'me ho kenella ha 'maraka oa libeteri tse matla tsa nickel ho potlakile.
Haholo-holo, mefuta e phahameng ea likoloi tsa motlakase tsa mose ho maoatle hangata e sebelisa tsela ea theknoloji ea nickel e phahameng, e lebisitseng keketsehong e kholo ea matla a kentsoeng a li-nickel tse ngata 'marakeng oa machaba, ho kenyeletsoa CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI le lik'hamphani tse ling tse etellang pele tsa betri Chaena, Japane le Korea Boroa.
Mabapi le tšusumetso, ka lehlakoreng le leng, phetoho ea hona joale ea tšepe ea nickel pig ho nickel e phahameng ea matte e lebisitse ho lokolloa butle ha matla a tlhahiso ea morero ka lebaka la moruo o sa lekaneng. Litheko tsa nickel li ntse li tsoela pele ho phahama, tse tla susumetsa bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea merero e phahameng ea nickel matte ea Indonesia ho potlakisa tlhahiso.
Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ka lebaka la ho phahama ha litheko tsa thepa, likoloi tse ncha tsa matla li qalile ho phahamisa litheko ka kopanelo. Ka kakaretso indasteri e tšoenyehile ka hore haeba theko ea thepa ea nickel e tsoela pele ho bela, tlhahiso le thekiso ea mefuta e phahameng ea li-nickel tsa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla li ka eketseha kapa tsa fokotseha selemong sena.
Nako ea poso: Apr-12-2022